Commentators on the right are suddenly warning that Donald Trump’s coalition is falling apart, blaming tariffs and economic frustration for Republican losses. But the first half of any term is usually the hardest stretch—especially after inheriting a damaged economy and hostile global trade environment. If prices and growth aren’t improving by the midterms, then there’s a real problem; until then, many “collapse” narratives look more like content creators chasing engagement than serious political analysis.